Will pellet prices fall? An honest answer

Let's start with the honest answer before the specifics: we don't know, and nobody does. We don't forecast pellet prices and don't intend to start. We measure them.

That distinction matters, because online you'll find plenty of pieces that sound like a forecast but are guesswork dressed in a confident tone. We can say something narrower but checkable: what our own measurements show and what really affects how much you pay — whichever way the market goes.

What can't be promised

The price of pellets depends on factors no price service controls or predicts: the availability of wood raw material, weather in the heating season, energy and transport costs, regulatory decisions, and plain panic buying at the first frost.

Anyone who gives you a specific date and a specific price "in a few weeks" is guessing. If they're right — you'll remember they were. If they're wrong, nobody checks.

What we do know for sure

There is one thing our data shows consistently, and it's far more useful than a forecast:

The spread of prices between shops on the same day is often larger than the market's typical movement over time. The difference between the cheapest and dearest class-A1 offer regularly exceeds 20%. That means something practical: choosing the right shop can give you more than hitting the perfect buying moment — and the choice of shop is entirely under your control and requires no prediction of the future.

You'll see the current spread in the price table: min, median and max for class A1, updated several times a day.

A second conclusion from our measurements: prices change more often than most people check. Someone who looks at prices once, on the day of purchase, sees one random point from a wide range — and has no idea whether they did well or badly.

How to decide without a forecast

Instead of waiting for a "bottom" nobody will announce in advance, you can do it differently:

1. Work out how much pellet you need — the season calculator (Polish) does it from floor area and insulation standard.
2. Set a threshold at which you'll consider the price good. Not "the lowest possible", but one at which the purchase pays for you. That's a decision you make once, calmly.
3. Split the purchase. Buy some now, some later. Then you needn't hit the perfect moment — you average the price, as with any purchase of a variably priced good.
4. Don't panic-buy. The first week of frost is the worst bargaining moment of the year: everyone buys at once, and you have no time to compare.

Point 2 is where we can genuinely help: instead of refreshing the table every day, you can set an alert at a chosen zł/t threshold and get an e-mail when any tracked offer drops below it. That inverts the problem — you don't have to guess when to look.

Seasonality: careful with rules from the internet

The oft-repeated advice "buy in summer, it's cheapest" is sometimes true, but it isn't a law of nature — the seasonal cycle can flatten or reverse when something unusual happens on the supply side.

So instead of repeating the rule, we show monthly averages from our own measurements on the when to buy page (Polish) — together with honest information about since when we've been collecting data and how short that history still is. Once our series covers a full year, that page will say much more than it does today. We don't pretend it says so already.

Summary

We won't tell you whether pellet prices will fall. We'll tell you what they cost today in a dozen or so shops, how they've changed since we began measuring, and we'll write to you when they fall below the threshold you set yourself.